This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 0-5 (YUCK), -5.3 units
Overall: 50-31, +11.26
Just like that five units go poof — an 0-5 Saturday will do that to you. I believe that is my first article this season in which I did not predict a single winner. Two of the games (Astros, Giants) missed by 0.5 run, and the Rangers-Mariners game was over by one run. Jake Odorizzi over on his strikeout prop and the Angels-Orioles over were just bad picks and not even close. Hopefully, some of the Sunday mojo can come back as I have had pretty good success all season. I even like FOUR strikeout props, which have been hard to come by lately.
Brewers at Pirates 1:05 p.m. EDT
Freddy Peralta vs. Tyler Anderson
Peralta has hit over 6.5 strikeouts in every start this year except three (12/15) and while Pittsburgh is a tougher team to strike out, Peralta did strike out seven Pirates on April 18. The Brewers offense is clicking and has feasted on the Pirates. I like Peralta to have a solid lead and work into the seventh inning.
The Brewers are on a roll, and with the huge mismatch in starting pitching, I will also lay -1.5 runs on the Brewers to win.
BET: Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts (+100) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Brewers -1.5 runs (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Astros at Indians, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Zack Greinke vs. Cal Quantrill
I'm going with more bets and shorter writeups, in this case I like Greinke to be working with a lead for his duration and will lay half a run. I am going to avoid laying -1.5 runs for the game. The Astros are a top-3 team and the Indians' lineup is not at full strength.
The Astros are -155 to win, so we get them at a better price laying the half run and going first five innings.
BET: Astros -0.5 first 5 innings (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Twins at Royals, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Maeda stinks. That's it. HAHA. It could be, but seriously 5.56 ERA, 1.55 WHIP this season? He is just not the same pitcher as in years past, and the Royals are the type of team that could eat his lunch. They don't strike out much and take walks. He has become a four to five inning pitcher at best and only has two strong outings all year.
BET: Maeda under 4.5 strikeouts (-120) for 1 RWBuck
Rockies vs. Cardinals, 3:10 p.m. EDT
German Marquez vs. Carlos Martinez
I always look for spots to go against the Rockies on the road and go with them at home. This is a great spot for the Rockies as their best pitcher, German Marquez, faces one of the league's worst, Carlos Martinez. The Rockies offense at home is one of the best in baseball and I look for them to jump all over Martinez.
Martinez has a 6.38 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Considering his 2020 numbers of 9.90 ERA and 2.10 WHIP, it makes you wonder why the Cardinals continue to start him. His 2021 road ERA is 7.52 and the Rockies got him for five runs May 8.
Marquez faced the Cardinals on May 9 and went six innings, allowing just one earned run with six strikeouts. The Rockies are 31-16 at home against the run line with a margin of victory of 1.1 runs.
BET: Marquez over 5.5 strikeouts (+100) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Martinez over 3.5 earned runs (+100) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Rockies -1.5 runs (+105) for 1 RWBuck
Mariners vs. Rangers, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Chris Flexen vs. Mike Foltynewicz
One of the biggest home/road splits for a starting pitcher, Flexen has just a 2.50 ERA at home in his career vs. 6.54 on the road. The strikeout numbers are about the same at about six per nine innings, but he should go longer in Sunday's game, which is why I like him to go over his 4.5 strikeout prop.
Flexen faced the Rangers at home May 7 and struck out six in 6.1 innings. It was not the prettiest of outings as he allowed 10 hits and four earned runs. But the Rangers have struck out 11 and 12 times in the first two games of this series and if Flexen can just get through six innings his prop should hit the over.
BET: Flexen over 4.5 strikeouts (-105) for 1 RWBuck
