This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We're entering the home stretch of the NBA regular season. With under two weeks to go before playoffs, the goal will be to capitalize on value that individual prop bets present before it craters entering playoff matchups.
One note on the "Best Bets" section. Often when I'm putting this article together, I'm looking for the best value among every prop, then sorting them into individual columns of exposure. The "Best Bets" section is meant to be a cut above the rest; the ones that I think have the most likely chance of hitting compared to other listed ones. Wednesday's slate features nine games that had a surprising amount of props to offer, but most felt near their possible outcomes, hence the limited number of "Best Bet" options. If there's one area I want to steer readers towards the right direction it's that spot, and I refuse to compromise its intended purpose by hitting an imaginary per-article number.
Points Props
We tried to take advantage of the Suns' solid defense in Tuesday's Handicapping the NBA section and failed, but I'm back again for seconds. Under 14.5 points for Clint Capela (-121) seems feasible given the Hawks center has went under that total in five of the last six games. It's worth mentioning Capela did score 16 points the last time these two teams played back in late March, but he was also in the midst of a stretch where he was lights out from the field ( 67 percent attempts from the field across 13 games). Consider that an unlikely scenario Wednesday.
I'm a bit wary about this total just given how high the figure is, but I think Domantas Sabonis is in range to register over 41.5 points+rebounds+assists (PRA). For -117 odds, you're essentially trying to catch the tailwinds of a recent stretch which has seen the big man average 29.0 points, 19.0 rebounds and 11.5 assists since returning from a multi-game absence due to a back injury. If Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring, questionable) is unable to play, that basically reinforces the over for this line and easily makes it a Best Bets candidate, but even if the point guard is healthy, the Kings allow the fifth-most points and most rebounds to opposing centers which should cushion a solid production floor for Sabonis.
From one insanely high PRA number to an absurdly low one, look at over 13.5 PRA for Raul Neto (-127). The Bucks actually allow the fourth-most points to opposing shooting guards, but the real reason I'm targeting this number is simply because Neto has produced despite the Wizards condescending their rotation with a playoff run in sight. Over the last five games Neto has played fewer than 26 minutes in all but one of those contests, but he's still averaging 9.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists over that stretch. The Bucks' attention will obviously be on Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook (to little or no avail), opening up the door for Neto to get enough production for this PRA over to hit.
With DraftKings more or less setting their props based on season averages, the recent trend we've been able to capitalize on is extended slumps by players. Under 8.5 points for Jaden McDaniels 8.5 points (-121) hits that barometer. The young forward had seven points in just 21 minutes last time the Timberwolves played the Grizzlies, but he's hardly been shooting as of late scoring fewer than nine points in each of his last six games. There's really no reason for that trend to stop given Memphis is one of the better teams defensively at shutting down opposing frontcourts, particularly power forwards.
Same goes for Jakob Poeltl under 8.5 points (-113). In the last seven games, the veteran big man has scored less than nine points four times, and we just saw him struggle against the Jazz on Monday, finishing with just six points in 20 minutes. It's worth noting the Jazz were up by 15 points by halftime in that one so I expect Poeltl's minutes to be a bit better Wednesday, but it's still hard to imagine Rudy Goebert suddenly failing to dominate the paint.
Rebounds/Assists Props
In games which Evan Fournier has played 32-plus minutes with the Celtics, he's went over 2.5 rebounds in three of the last four games. Jaylen Brown (ankle) out will basically guarantee that total if the game is close, and something tells me even if it isn't, a revenge game by the former Magic shooting guard will make that total happen. Give me over 2.5 rebounds for Fournier (-159).
It's absolutely no lock given Seth Curry's historical numbers, but he's went over 2.5 rebounds (+146) in five of the last six games, and the Rockets allow a decent amount of rebounds to opposing backcourts. Honestly you could pick just about any 76ers over when it comes rebound props, but this one just presented substantially better odds.
Best Bets
- Evan Fournier over 2.5 rebounds (-159)
- Domantas Sabonis over 41.5 PRA (-117) *if Malcolm Brogdon does not play
