This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
There's a number of matchups with major playoff ramifications Saturday, but few of these really have fantastic odds from a betting perspective. Let's survey the scene a bit and see if we can't find some value.
Points Props
At least recently, the Wizards and Pacers are two of the fastest-paced teams in the entire league, and we just saw this game five days ago in which the teams combined for 295 points. While I highly doubt the scoring gets that high, Domantas Sabonis over 23.5 points (-105) should be in range given the pace. The Wizards really don't present much threat defensively in the post and Sabonis will likely be one of the top offensive options if Malcolm Brodgon (hamstring) is once again unable to play.
There's also room for Paul Millsap to go over 11.5 points (-132) in Saturday's matchup against the Nets. While the veteran didn't see a massive jump in his scoring total Wednesday after rejoining the starting lineup, he has at least attempted over 10 field goals in each of the last two games. The Nets allow the the fifth-most points to opposing power forwards and while I imagine Nikola Jokic should be a dominant threat, the Nuggets are going to need multiple secondary scores in order to stay competitive in this one.
Darius Bazley continues to be one of the Thunder's lone scoring threats since the loss of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (foot), scoring 20 or more points in seven of the last 13 games. While the Warriors should dominate this matchup, I think it's entirely possible Bazley goes over 16.5 points (-120) considering he's scored exactly 22 points in each of the last two April matchups against Golden State, including a Thursday-night rout.
We managed to get a win taking Jakob Poeltl's under Wednesday, but I do think the big man projects well against the Trail Blazers. Poeltl's rebounding figure is priced up to the point where there's little value, but I do think you can target the 9.5-point over (-113). Portland has been better defensively with Jusuf Nurkic now healthy, but they're still allowing the ninth-most points to opposing centers in the league. Poeltl has also went over this figure in six of the last 11 games, including a 17-point outing April 16 against the Trail Blazers.
Rebounds/Assists Props
Sometimes I like to create some oddball parlays using a few easy markers as free spaces. Jonas Valanciunas (-200) or Nikola Jokic (-455) to register double-doubles are great parlay builders as I imagine both are near locks to hit the figure. Especially Valanciunas, who has tallied a double-double in four of the last four games, should be solid in a revenge-game matchup against his former team. Toss in a 76ers win over the Pistons and you're looking at +124 odds if you combine all three. Not bad for things that should all happen.
I never have much luck getting prop bets right with Dejounte Murray, but over 5.5 assists (-129) is something I'm interested in given how badly the Trail Blazers are at limiting rebounds and assists to opposing backcourts. The Spurs guard is also averaging 10.5 assists in his two most recent games against Portland so I'll happily take this figure even though he's been maddeningly inconsistent at times.
Best Bets
- Darius Bazley over 16.5 points
- Dejounte Murray over 5.5 assists
- Jonas Valanciunas double-double (-200)
