For those who were unable to make it over Labor Day weekend, you still have one last shot to play in the NFFC this weekend if you're in or around Las Vegas this weekend. That's right….on September 9th and 10th, there will be another series of NFFC drafts that you won't want to miss. So in an effort to help prepare for this final run of drafts, we're going to look at some of the bigger risers and fallers between the NFFC satellite drafts and the Labor Day weekend extravaganza as well as point out a few notes from yesterdays Packers/Saints game that also may affect some ADP ranks. Every bit of information helps…just ask those who are using their backup QB in lieu of Peyton Manning, for the whole year.
The good thing about tracking ADP data for the NFFC is that there's plenty of consistency and, for the most part, the larger swings in movement are justified. Let's face it, if you're participating, you're making an investment. And as a responsible and intelligent owner, you are protecting that investment by doing your homework. The same cannot be said in home leagues where personal bias makes numerous ugly appearances over rational and informed decisions throughout drafts. As a result, there aren't too many big swings here in the ADP rankings, so we'll just highlight rather than break out the charts again. You can access the Overall ADP Trend Report here and for the bigger swings in ADP prior to Labor Day weekend, check out last week's column.
Risers and Fallers
Ray Rice(42.9|PERCENT| increase) continues his climb up the ADP rankings, and while he was only up 10.6|PERCENT| over this past week (29.2|PERCENT| from two weeks ago) that's because you really can't go much higher. In numerous drafts at the NFFC, Rice has gone as high as number one overall and since word of Arian Foster (-19.4|PERCENT|) and his hamstring issues, Rice has become a top 3 target for the most part. Some don't believe in him (or maybe it's the Ravens' O-line they don't trust) as he has gone as late as 15th, but if you're targeting him at all, look early. He won't last out of the top five.
Speaking of Foster's hamstring…Ben Tate seems to be getting all the love in the ADP rankings with his 12.1|PERCENT| increase, however, be on the look out for Derrick Ward. He seems to be hanging out around the 246th pick with no increase over the last two weeks, but reports are coming out that he may get substantial work early on and he should be your choice in a PPR league. You might have a nice early season sleeper there, although his value virtually disintegrates once Foster is 100|PERCENT|.
The faith in Jamaal Charles (-11.1|PERCENT|) is also waning, especially with the fact that he hasn't even been named the starting running back. It's difficult to know what Todd Haley is trying to accomplish, but his actions are giving credence to the belief that Thomas Jones will see his fair share of carries this season and that Charles is, by no means, a lock to get all of the work, even down at the goal line.
Cracking the top 30 overall is Vincent Jackson who understandably has seen an increase of 11.8|PERCENT|. It seems to be a no-brainer here in a PPR format as Jackson is a favorite target for Phillip Rivers in that Chargers offense. Add to it the fact that Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd and even a year-wiser Ryan Matthews will help keep defenses honest enough to not key in on Jackson every time he's on the field.
It's been a solid preseason for Dallas RB Felix Jones and it's reflective in his 13.0|PERCENT| increase over the last two weeks in the NFFC ADP trend report. The Cowboys certainly have a few options to spell him, but Jones looks like the primary and has solid pass-catching abilities. He could be in for a big first week two as the Jets pass defense will do everything it can to stifle the three-headed receiving monster of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Tony Romo will likely have to use Jones as a safety valve often once it gets jammed up downfield and the pass rush is coming.
Tim Hightower (21.0|PERCENT|) and Reggie Bush (11.9|PERCENT|) continue to ascend in the rankings as they are each the primary back in their respective systems with back-ups that are nursing injuries. Ryan Torain, who is probable, is still dealing with the broken bone in his hand while Daniel Thomas is on the mend from a hamstring tweak. However, while both backs could start off hot this season, you would be wise to invest in their backups (Roy Helu in Washington as well). With no trading in the NFFC, you want to make sure that you are covered. Neither Hightower nor Bush have proven themselves to be capable of shouldering the entire load, and while each may prove otherwise, it's better to be safe than sorry. None of the handcuffs have seen any significant increase in ADP, so draft accordingly.
While he may not be your favorite for a PPR league, Plaxico Burress (14.8|PERCENT|) is seeing a steady increase over the past few weeks. Santonio Holmes should be Mark Sanchez' go to receiver, but Burress is a solid downfield threat and should be a major red zone target. Between his height advantage over most defensive backs and his ability to hang onto the ball in traffic, Burress should make for a decent WR2/3 this season and a great value around the 150th pick.
Potential ADP Backlash from Packers/Saints Game?
There were several things about Opening Night for the NFL that were to be expected. Aaron Rogers and Drew Brees were chucking the ball all over the place, Greg Jennings was a favorite with 9 targets, 7 catches for 89 yards and a TD, Jimmy Graham had an expected solid first game with7 targets, 4 catches for 56 yards and a TD, and neither running game had much to get excited about. But there were definitely some notable things that, if you're drafting before the games start Sunday, could affect some ADP rankings afterwards…
While Marques Colston (9 targets, 6 catches for 81 yards, FL) was looked at often, his fumble in the first half seemed to make him less of a target in the third quarter, and when he missed on a diving grab late in the game, he may have injured his shoulder. He was seen favoring it as he headed to the sideline. With that, the potential values of Robert Meachem (8 targets, 5 catches for 70 yards and a TD) and Devery Henderson (9 targets, 6 catches for 100 yards and a TD) could increase early on in the season. Lance Moore is still hurt and if Colston misses any time, then both receivers could be grabbed earlier than what their ADP rankings (104 and 259 respecively) show right now.
Jordy Nelson made a big splash in his season debut as Rogers targeted him 8 times for 6 catches, 77 yards and a touchdown. He was looked at more than anyone not named Jennings, including Jermichael Finley. If he becomes a favorite in the possession game, then he could blossom into a Wes Welker-type guy. Yes, it's just one game, but you have to learn to prepare and anticipate. His ADP is at 185 right now, but after week 1, his position could go a little higher this weekend, especially for PPR leagues.
James Starks' 12 carries, including work inside the 10, to Ryan Grant's 9 carries. 'Nuff said.
As expected, Darren Spoles is doing the job the Saints envisioned Reggie Bush doing over the years. With 9 targets and 7 catches for 75 yards, it looks like he could end up being a great flex play each week. He added in two rushes and a punt return for a TD, so if you have bonus scoring for individual special teams work, he'll be even more valuable. His ADP is currently 132 which is just a 2.0|PERCENT| increase over the last two weeks, but expect someone to reach a little higher for him now.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.