NASCAR Barometer: Ross Chastain Conquers Nashville

Ross Chastain returned from the NASCAR Cup Series week off with emphasis in Sunday's Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. The Trackhouse Racing driver qualified on pole and led a race high of 99 laps on the way to his first victory of 2023. The win looked likely given Chastain's speed since the beginning of the season, and he now has a spot in the championship playoffs in hand with it after leading the standings for the first seven weeks of the season. Sunday's breakthrough could not have come at a better venue either. Nashville is the hometown of Trackhouse owner Justin Marks. The team as a whole was at its best throughout Sunday evening's 400 miles with a fast car on track and quick pit work from the crew. The win was a just reward for the team as regular marches on and the series faces several unknowns this week for the first street course race in series history.

This week's visit to the streets of downtown Chicago will be the third road course race of 2023 and the first street course race in series history. The unknowns of a new venue and a new type of course will present many challenges for teams and drivers to overcome, but a new road course in itself is becoming more of a normal aspect of Cup Series racing. Chicago's downtown street circuit is one of six road course races this season, and it is the next of the final nine races remaining in the regular season.

UPGRADE

Ross Chastain - First, Chastain snagged his first series pole, which also happened to be the first for Trackhouse Racing. Then he jumped out to lead the first 42 laps of the race before getting stuck in traffic and letting Tyler Reddick sneak by. The early race pace didn't disappear, though. Chastain remained a contender at the sharp end of the field throughout the second and final stages, ultimately taking the lead again for good on lap 267. From there he was able to hold off a charging Martin Truex Jr. to grab his first race win of the season, guaranteeing his spot among the playoff contenders. Sunday's victory followed a 10th-place finish at Sonoma before the break and marks the start or a new trend following three straight finishes outside of the top 20 before that. Chastain, a former road course winner, will also be looking forward to NASCAR's first street course race where he should be in the mix for a second straight victory.

Martin Truex Jr. - Sunday was another top finish from Truex as he continues to build momentum this summer. The second-place finish he earned Sunday night at Nashville was his fourth consecutive top-five, which includes a victory at Sonoma. Truex added stage points from both opening segments Sunday, before trying to chase down eventual winner Ross Chastain. Truex didn't have the speed to get the job done, but his effort on the day was enough to maintain his lead in the points. After returning to Victory Lane on a road course at Sonoma, Truex will be another driver with high hopes as NASCAR visits its first ever street course. Truex has been one of the best drivers on road courses and his current momentum should help him make a charge again this coming week. With six top-fives and nine top-10s for far this season, Truex is looking more and more like a potential favorite for the final four each week.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin's third-place finish Sunday night at Nashville is an indication of just how competitive the Cup Series is. The No. 11 led 81 laps, which was second to only the winner and battled teammate Truex to capture a stage win. Hamlin said after the race that the team made no mistakes throughout the distance. However, the best the car had in it was third. The result was Hamlin's second finish of third or better in the last three races and the fifth top-five of the season. He can rest assured of a playoff spot, but the team will want to find that fraction of an advantage that has kept them out of Victory Lane more often than not before those knockout rounds commence. The car tends to be quite competitive most weeks, which is good for fantasy players but not the success and victories that the team probably deserves given their pace.

Kyle Busch - A flat tire in the first 30 laps at Nashville appeared to have thwarted Busch's night before it really got underway. The team made quick repairs on pit road and then used that unexpected stop to keep Busch on track from then until the end of the first stage. Remarkably, Busch saved enough fuel to get to that break and finished in the top 10 for some stage points to boot. That adjustment in strategy got Busch back on cycle with a car that could contend inside the top 10 for the rest of the race, and that is exactly what he did. When all was said and done Busch led 12 laps and finished ninth for his 10th top-10 of the season. Only William Byron and Christopher Bell have as many top-10 finishes at this point as Busch, who is still in his first season with Richard Childress Racing. The potential for more wins this season continues to look bright for this former champion.

Chase Elliott - Despite missing a number of races due to a broken leg and then being suspended for an additional one, Elliott doesn't appear to have lost much pace. His fourth-place finish Sunday at Nashville was his third top-five from his last four races. He still sits just 25th in the standings due to the races missed, though. That gap he has in points makes it imperative that he score a race win in one of the remaining regular season races. Continuing to run among the top five each week puts him in a really good position to get that task done, too. Additionally, Elliott is no slouch on road courses. He was arguably the best in recent seasons and finished fifth at Sonoma just a few weeks ago. This coming week's race on the streets of Chicago could be a scenario where Elliott can compete for the win.

DOWNGRADE

Tyler Reddick - Sunday's Ally 400 started well for Reddick. Late in the first stage he took advantage of Noah Gragson's fight to stay on the lead lap to overtake Chastain. The move paid off as Reddick was able to hold off the No. 1 until the stage finish, earning a valuable playoff point. The night didn't close as successfully, though. In the second stage he spun and lost a wheel at the entrance to pit road after pitting the lap prior. That was enough of a setback, in a race with limited cautions, to fall too far back to recover. When all was said and done Reddick finished two laps down in 30th position, which was his third finish of 30th or worse in a row. There is reason to be optimistic, though. Next week's race is at a unique road course in Chicago, and Reddick has proven to be one of the best road racers in the series recently with a win at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season.

Ryan Blaney - Blaney's Nashville race ended against the inside wall when a stage 2 restart triggered a pile up that sent him spinning. The hard impact ruined the car and sent Blaney straight out of the race. With no stage points, Blaney left the race weekend with just one point toward his championship cause. His playoff hopes remain intact with his victory at Charlotte, but Sunday's DNF was Blaney's second finish outside of the top 30 in a row. Additionally, road courses haven't been the best for the No. 12 team this season. While the coming week's race at Chicago will be different than other road course races, Blaney's finishes of 21st and 31st on the two road courses run this year do not inspire much confidence. Blaney and the No. 12 team continue to show glimpses of speed and promise but will be focusing on closing out races in a top position before the playoffs begin.

Michael McDowell - McDowell's run of top finishes came to an end at Nashville. He entered the weekend with two top-10 finishes in a row, but that trend ended quickly when McDowell nearly missed pit road entry in the first stage and endured the penalty that went along with it. The recovery after that misstep never materialized and McDowell ended the race a lap down in 28th position. The nine points he took from the race will not help his championship hopes either. He now sits 20th in the series standings, 27 points behind Daniel Suarez in the last of the playoff positions. As regular season races pass by, the challenge to work his way back into contention for the top 16 spots in the standings will become more and more difficult. There are a few tracks that could play to his favor remaining, though. Chicago could be one of those given his road course skills, but it would take a reversal of fortune considering Nashville's underperformance.

Kevin Harvick – A flat rear tire with about 60 laps remaining in Sunday's Ally 400 put an end to Harvick's hopes of a top finish. He was running inside the top five at the time of the issue, and he had previously finished ninth in the second stage after improving his car's handling throughout the race. The unfortunate incident dropped him out of contention for a top finish, leaving him 24th at the checkered flag. Harvick still doesn't have the race win that would guarantee him a playoff spot in his final season of full-time competition, which will make the remaining regular season races even more stressful. Harvick has the 12th position in the standings and has the most points of all drivers without a win. While that is a good position to be in, a win would allow him to focus on their playoff package. The other good news is that Sunday's finish was his first finish outside of the top 20 since April.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

AJ Allmendinger - The current season has not been living up to Allmendinger's expectations. After spending last season as one of the contenders for the Xfinity Series championship, the step up with the same team to Cup competition has not been any easier. However, Allmendinger won Saturday in a return to Xfinity racing and then carried some of that momentum into Sunday's race. His 10th-place finish Sunday night was his third top-10 finish of the season. More importantly, it was the team's fourth consecutive finish inside the top 15 since the All-Star Race. That run of good finishes has Allmendinger 19th in the championship standings, just 24 points outside of the playoff positions. While making the playoffs on points alone is becoming more of a reality for Allmendinger, the chances of winning his way in may be even greater considering this week's street course foray.