This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the US Open continues Saturday from the USTA Billie Jean King Tennis Center in Queens, New York. A couple of accomplished veterans will look to overcome the odds as underdogs against perennial Grand Slam underachievers, while a young American looks to continue her rapid ascent up the rankings. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the US Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
US Open Picks: Upset Alert
Grigor Dimitrov (+200) vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev has won the last five head-to-head matchups between these two — including at the French Open and Cincinnati this year — after Dimitrov took their first meeting, but the Bulgarian could be poised to turn the tables this time around. Dimitrov's playing with house money here after saving two match points in the opening round, and he looked relaxed and effective in a dominant second-round win over Andy Murray, dropping just eight games. Zverev's ranked seven spots ahead of Dimitrov at No. 12, but the German has been at his best on clay this year while going just 15-11 on hard courts. Dimitrov's 12-8 on the surface in 2023, and five of his six runs to the quarterfinals or better at a Grand Slam have come on hard courts, including a US Open semifinal in 2019.
Elina Svitolina (+250) vs. Jessica Pegula
Pegula rarely loses to players she should beat, but Svitolina doesn't necessarily fall into that category. A top-10 staple for most of her career, Svitolina's still rebuilding her ranking after returning from pregnancy, but the Ukrainian's playing as well as ever at age 28. She made the quarterfinals of the French Open and the semis at Wimbledon, beating world No. 1 Iga Swiatek along the way at the All England Club. Pegula leads their head-to-head 3-1, but their only match this year came down to the wire, with Pegula taking it 6-4 in the third just under a month ago. Given Pegula's history of underperforming in Grand Slams, Svitolina might just turn the tables here in what should be another tight match.
Honorable Mention
Nicolas Jarry (+280) vs. Alex de Minaur
US Open Odds: Lock It In
Jack Draper (-275) vs. Michael Mmoh
Draper's a top-20 talent when healthy, and the 21-year-old Brit finally appears to be firing on all cylinders again after missing nearly three months post-French Open. His No. 123 ranking doesn't do Draper justice, as he started the year ranked in the top 40 and has notched numerous big wins in his young career, most recently taking out an admittedly under the weather Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets Thursday. Mmoh capitalized on facing a rusty and injured Karen Khachanov in the first round, then came back from two sets down to send John Isner into retirement, but if Draper maintains the level he's shown so far in this tournament, he's simply in a different class of player compared to the 89th-ranked American.
Daria Kasatkina (-310) vs. Greet Minnen
Kasatkina has had to dig deep so far in this tournament, coming back from a set to love down against promising young American Alycia Parks and former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin. The world No. 14 should encounter far smoother sailing against the 97th-ranked Minnen, who has taken advantage of a ridiculously easy draw to get here, beating Venus Williams and Sachia Vickery, both of whom are ranked outside the top 200. Minnen has just one top-90 win in 2023, having beaten 55th-ranked Claire Liu on clay back in May.
Honorable Mention
Cameron Norrie (-360) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
US Open Predictions: Value Bets
Liudmila Samsonova (+100) vs. Madison Keys
Samsonova's a nice value as a slight underdog in this battle of big hitters. The 24-year-old Russian is seeded three spots ahead of Keys at No. 14, and she has enjoyed a strong summer on the North American hard courts, knocking off Aryna Sabalenka, Belinda Bencic and Elena Rybakina consecutively to reach the final of the Canadian Open. These two have split two previous three-setters and are likely to go the distance again, but Samsonova should be viewed as a slight favorite based on recent form.
Peyton Stearns (-140) vs. Katie Boulter
Stearns is one of the brightest young talents in American tennis, and she's making a name for herself at this tournament. The 21-year-old Cincinnati native has already climbed into the top 60. She reached the third round at the French Open and has gotten to that stage again here while dropping only 10 games along the way. While Stearns is ranked only two spots above Boulter, the American is the far better hard-court player. Boulter's best results have come on grass, and the 27-year-old Brit is in the third round of a non-Wimbledon Grand Slam for the first time. Prior to this tournament, Boulter had notched just one main draw win in her career at the Australian Open, French Open and US Open combined.
Honorable Mention
Ons Jabeur (-150) vs. Marie Bouzkova
