Half PPR Rankings

McCaffrey was the consensus RB1 and 1.01 overall fantasy pick from 2019 to 2021, but the collapse of the Panthers offense and injuries in the 2020 and 2021 seasons had McCaffrey's ranking up for review after two dud years. That didn't last long. Not only has McCaffrey's health cooperated the last two years, he now has the enviable privilege of playing in a top-three offense. To switch from the Panthers to the high-octane 49ers offense took McCaffrey – already a 1.01 pick in fantasy – and made his numbers even better. Even with sky-high usage the last two years (516 carries, 152 receptions) McCaffrey's efficiency is at a league-leading level (5.0 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per target). Volume is normally a slight downward pressure on efficiency – the more a defense expects you, the better they tend to defend you – but in the 49ers offense McCaffrey has been unstoppable no matter how aggressively defenses try to slow him. McCaffrey's previous injury troubles raise the understandable fear of similar injuries occurring in the future, but injuries can happen to any running back. Rather than fretting over McCaffrey's past injuries, the more useful frame would be the fact that injuries are likely the only way another running back might catch McCaffrey in the fantasy rankings. That's a statement that would apply to very few running backs throughout history, and the simple fact is a talent like McCaffrey in a scheme like San Francisco's yields an almost perfect projection.

Hill is the first player ever with multiple seasons of 1,700 receiving yards, having done it in both of his first two years with the Dolphins. He was on pace for a record-breaking 2,098 yards (and 17 TDs) through Week 13 last season, but then a Week 14 ankle injury cost him part of one game and all of another, derailing his MVP candidacy in the process. Coach Mike McDaniel's offense has proven even more fantasy-friendly than the Reid/Mahomes partnership Hill had in Kansas City, with the wideout playing fewer snaps than other top receivers (43.4 per game last year) but drawing targets on an unprecedented share of his routes. Last year, Hill was targeted on 37.8 percent of routes, seven percentage points ahead of second-place Davante Adams (30.8). The year before, Hill was a bit lower at 33.0 percent, though still the NFL leader by two percentage points. Coming off the field on a semi-regular basis allows the league's fastest player to keep his leagues fresh and exert all his energy on each route he runs. Hill has missed just seven games in eight seasons despite heavy usage, and he doesn't seem to have lost a step ahead of his age-30 campaign, setting him up to again lead one of the league's most explosive offenses alongside QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle.

Lamb has improved upon his totals for targets, catches, yards and touchdowns with each passing year since the Cowboys drafted him 17th overall in 2020, peaking last season as the highest-scoring wide receiver for both PPR and standard scoring. He finished at WR5/6 overall in 2022, then took a massive leap forward last season with 25 more targets and 390 more receiving yards while posting career highs for catch rate (74.6 percent) and yards per target (9.7). In addition to leading the NFL in catches and targets, Lamb tied for third among WRs with 14 carries and took them for 113 yards and two touchdowns (14 TDs total). Many of his peripheral stats were similar to previous years (e.g. 9.3 aDOT, 5.1 YAC average) but he was targeted on a career-high 28.3 percent of his routes and caught nearly three-fourths of those passes even though defenses knew what was coming. While neither particularly big (6-2. 200) nor fast (4.50), Lamb is silky-smooth both before and after the catch and seems to have an innate understanding of footwork and angles like DeAndre Hopkins or Isaac Bruce. If there's one possible criticism, it's that Lamb was a bit more volume-reliant than fellow elite WR1 Tyreek Hill, who ran 193 fewer routes but was targeted on an incredible 38.2 percent of them. Even that's just nitpicking, though, as Lamb had the sixth-highest target rate over the seventh most routes (641)., i.e., he can afford to lose some volume in 2024 and still be a high-end WR1.

Jefferson reached 1,400 yards as a rookie, 1,600 as a sophomore, 1,800 in Year 3 and then looked ready to push for 2,000 early last season. He was already up to 571 in Week 5 when a hamstring knocked him out for the fourth quarter and then the next seven games. Jefferson's long-awaited return was spoiled by a chest injury after 13 snaps, but he came back the next week and exploded for 476 yards over the final four games to comfortably clear 1,000 yards for the season (1,074). If not for the two partial games, he almost certainly would've led the league in receiving yards per game for a second straight year, though Miami's Tyreek Hill was the undisputed king for both 2022 and 2023 in terms or per-route production. Jefferson is by no means lacking in that regard -- he's been Top 10 in yards per route in all four of his seasons -- but it helps that he almost never comes off the field when healthy and spent the past two years in Kevin O'Connell offenses that threw the ball 676 (3rd) and 631 (4th) times. O'Connell is still around, but the Minnesota offense is much harder to decipher after TE T.J. Hockenson suffered last-year ACL tear and QB Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta. While few teams, if any, match the WR pairing of Jefferson and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison, there's obvious risk of a down year with rookie J.J. McCarthy and/or Sam Darnold taking the QB snaps.

Chase's rookie season remains his best statistical effort through three years, but there's no shortage of signs that the best may still be ahead. He missed five games in his second season whilst averaging a league-high 11.1 targets per game, and then in 2023 he was on pace for 130-1,551-9 on 187 targets prior to the week in which QB Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Backup QB Jake Browning kept the offense afloat, but not Chase's fantasy production, in part because the WR missed one game with an AC joint sprain and then played fewer snaps than usual the final two weeks. Injuries haven't been the only factor, to be fair. Chase was perhaps the best deep threat in the NFL as a rookie -- 15 catches for 576 yards and eight TDs on 34 targets of 20-plus yards -- but has seen just 37 deep passes across two subsequent seasons even though his efficiency on those throws has remained impressive (15-of-37 for 528 yards and six TDs). His aDOT has dropped with each passing year (12.6 to 9.3 to 8.4) on account of the Bengals giving him fewer deep shots and peppering him with screens, slants, hitches, etc. The hope now for anyone drafting Chase early in the first round is that he can combine his rookie-year fireworks with the short-area volume from Years 2 and 3. The Bengals anticipate having Burrow healthy well before training camp, and they seemingly plan to let No. 3 receiver Tyler Boyd leave in free agency while ignoring No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins' trade request.